This weird winter weather's on everybody's minds — so of course our first "Ask the Conservationist" features two questions on climate change.
Patrick Gonzalez and Dominique Bachelet from The Nature Conservancy's Global Climate Change Initiative tell us how climate change will affect the U.S. heartland and what "migrating" habitats might mean for conservation.
And when you're done reading, send us your question for one of the Conservancy's 720 staff scientists! (Note: Your response last month was overwhelming — thank you! We regret we can only answer one or two questions each month.)
Tom Boltz of Vienna, VA asks:
Nearly every discussion of global warming emphasizes the rise of sea levels and the flooding of coastal areas. However, what do scientists think will happen to the interior of the North American continent—such as the Great Plains and the Great Lakes regions, where much of our food is grown and most of our industry is located? Has anyone given any thought to or done research what might be global warming's effects on areas other than the oceans and coastal areas?
Patrick Gonzalez, a climate change scientist at the Conservancy, responds:
Scientists have actually conducted extensive research on the impacts of global warming on forests, grasslands, agricultural areas, and other terrestrial ecosystems:
For example, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration measurements show that temperatures across the Great Lakes increased more than 1șC in the 20th century and that precipitation decreased 10 percent in Montana, North Dakota and Wyoming.
Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that temperatures could rise another 3-6șC in these areas by the end of the 21st century — and that rainfall may decline even further.
Analyses by the U.S. Global Change Research Program project that more precipitation may fall as rain than snow across the Great Lakes. Climate change could also lower lake levels, shift vegetation northward towards cooler regions, cause plants to flower earlier in the spring and alter bird migration and other wildlife behavior.
In addition to these changes in natural habitats, research indicates that climate change may increase crop damage from severe droughts and increase heat-related health problems for people in cities.
Gloria G. Schlaepfer of Fullerton, CA asks:
I know the Nature Conservancy is doing a great job in conserving biodiversity around the world. But as our planet's ecosystems are and will be increasingly changed by global warming, will not many of our most precious habitats be irrevocably altered by climate change? What thoughts, discussions, and plans are being given to this?
Dr. Dominique Bachelet, the Conservancy's director of climate change science, responds:
Many of our most precious habitats may be irrevocably altered by climate change — but that alteration might not always make them less precious.
In many cases, the changes will result in alterations that erode our goals in the places were we are working. Reducing emissions will help to limit the magnitude of the changes, but we also need to take these changes into account in our planning. If we are to protect biodiversity that is representative of the planet, we need to anticipate what to expect and plan accordingly.
Projecting climate change is an uncertain science, and no one has a crystal ball to show the future. Large regional differences will exist both in the magnitude and rapidity of the changes that will occur. Optimal habitats that exist today may disappear, while marginal lands may become very productive. Areas that we were protecting because they were tundra might disappear but be replaced by lush forests. Deserts might green up.
On the other hand, in other parts of the world, green pastures might become deserts. There is nothing more beautiful than spring in the desert when cactuses are in bloom. In some cases we need to open our minds and welcome change when mitigation is not possible.
The Conservancy will monitor these changes, use the best available tools to simulate the future and search for realistic options to help mitigate the impacts when possible. But we will also document the richness of new environments that climate change may bring — preserving them from future development (as well as preserving the history of their development) for future generations.
Join The Nature Conservancy on
Facebook
Flickr
Twitter